What could hold India back?

By Nadir Godrej

June 5th, 2008

Right now India’s on a roll.

Two digit growth’s sought as the goal.

And confidence is very high.

The only limit seems the sky.

It took us very long to learn,

But now it seems like it’s our turn.

The dependency ratio’s rather low.

From this of course much good could flow.

Reforms can help to speed the pace.

But in our minds we’ve won the race!

We think we’ve earned the right to spend

The demographic dividend!

This confidence has been brought

To us by the BRIC report.

We forget that we still have to try.

We think we’ve earned the right to fly.

I am of course no pessimist.

I think that we will reach our tryst

With demographic destiny.

And yet, there are some clouds I see.

The limits Malthus claimed to see

Were trumped in turn by technology.

The Cassandra cries of the Club of Rome

Could not succeed in striking home.

Could climate change and the Asian boom

Together cause Malthusian doom?

Or can we speed the pace of change

And bring it in the desired range?

Another cloud that I foresee

Is that our markets are not free.

High prices lead to conservation

But subsidies in our nation

Cause high consumption, low production

And economical destruction.

The price of gas and fertilizer

Would make a spendthrift of a miser!

Now aviation and communication

Are liberalized prides of the nation.

But water and power are often free

The results are there for all to see-

Persistent cuts in our power,

No water for our daily shower.

Commodity prices are now sky high

Instead of trying to boost supply,

They, for reasons hard to understand,

Try desperate measures with a heavy hand

Like banning futures, banning trade

And then controlling prices paid. 

Another cloud that I can see

Is our persistent poverty.

It is a cause for so much cheer

That poverty did disappear

In Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

In India too it surely can.

A rising tide should lift all boats.

But if it’s slow you lose the votes.

And so we need to talk of both -

Rapid and inclusive growth.

By some, our growth, is oft derided.

They claim that it is quite lopsided.

Disparities in education

Cause imbalance in our nation.

The government does try to spend.

But I don’t think that helps to mend.

Now spending is a poor tool

Because of Rajiv Gandhi’s rule-

Of all the money that is spent

A whopping eighty-five per cent

Is siphoned off along the way.

Some say we should directly pay

The poor with smart cards or stamps

Or in massive handout camps!

And this solution would be quicker.

So what if some is spent on liquor!

Everyone now understands

That choice costs less than sticky hands!

But if inclusive growth is slow,

The people’s patience may then go.

And our steady evolution

Could give way to revolution.

Democracy gives us an out.

We are always free to shout.

Periodically we let off steam.

All things considered it would seem

The right to argue does enable

Our anarchy to stay quite stable!

Now happiness is the real treasure

And yet we use wealth as the measure.

Materially we may advance

But if we then look askance

At values that we once held dear.

Then perhaps we should fear

That progress on the wealthy track,

Itself may serve to hold us back.